REGULAR CONTENT
Final ID
493
Type
Original Scientific Research-Oral or Pos
Authors
O Ahmed1, A Baadh1, L Liu1, M Patel2, J Tasse1, J Hoffmann3, B Arslan1
Institutions
1Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, IL, 2University of Chicago Medicine, Chicago, IL, 3WInthrop-University Hospital, Garden City, NY
Purpose
To analyze the past and forecast the future prevalence of HCV and NASH as etiologies for cirrhosis and HCC in the setting of novel anti-viral agents and rising obesity rates in the US.
Materials & Methods
Past US prevalence data from 1982-2010 for HCV, NASH, and alcoholic cirrhosis were collected and analyzed based on available National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and National Inpatient Sample (NIS) discharge data. These values were used to fit and project future growth curves using a second order polynomial trendline in order to estimate prevalence until the year 2030. Future NASH prevalence was also modeled by incorporating current and past US obesity rates from the NHANES.
Results
Prevalence of NASH and HCV are expected to increase and decline respectively over the next two decades with alcoholic cirrhosis expected to stay relatively unchanged. The projected prevalence of NASH equaled and overtook the projected prevalence of HCV in 2008 at an estimated 2.7 million persons. Per calculated trendlines, the prevalence of HCV is expected to decline at an estimated linear rate of 75429 cases/year while NASH is projected to exhibit more exponential growth with a coefficient of the quadratic term of 9606. By 2030, the model predicted the prevalence of HCV to decrease to 1.0 and NASH to increase to 12.2 million, respectively.
Conclusions
The future prevalence of HCV and NASH are expected to become further divergent with NASH emerging as the major contributor of cirrhosis in the US. Interventional radiologists should be aware of the magnitude of this changing demographic to better position themselves to identify and treat this disease.
Final ID
493
Type
Original Scientific Research-Oral or Pos
Authors
O Ahmed1, A Baadh1, L Liu1, M Patel2, J Tasse1, J Hoffmann3, B Arslan1
Institutions
1Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, IL, 2University of Chicago Medicine, Chicago, IL, 3WInthrop-University Hospital, Garden City, NY
Purpose
To analyze the past and forecast the future prevalence of HCV and NASH as etiologies for cirrhosis and HCC in the setting of novel anti-viral agents and rising obesity rates in the US.
Materials & Methods
Past US prevalence data from 1982-2010 for HCV, NASH, and alcoholic cirrhosis were collected and analyzed based on available National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and National Inpatient Sample (NIS) discharge data. These values were used to fit and project future growth curves using a second order polynomial trendline in order to estimate prevalence until the year 2030. Future NASH prevalence was also modeled by incorporating current and past US obesity rates from the NHANES.
Results
Prevalence of NASH and HCV are expected to increase and decline respectively over the next two decades with alcoholic cirrhosis expected to stay relatively unchanged. The projected prevalence of NASH equaled and overtook the projected prevalence of HCV in 2008 at an estimated 2.7 million persons. Per calculated trendlines, the prevalence of HCV is expected to decline at an estimated linear rate of 75429 cases/year while NASH is projected to exhibit more exponential growth with a coefficient of the quadratic term of 9606. By 2030, the model predicted the prevalence of HCV to decrease to 1.0 and NASH to increase to 12.2 million, respectively.
Conclusions
The future prevalence of HCV and NASH are expected to become further divergent with NASH emerging as the major contributor of cirrhosis in the US. Interventional radiologists should be aware of the magnitude of this changing demographic to better position themselves to identify and treat this disease.